Vladimir Fédorovski, in his latest essay, Putin and Ukraine: hidden faces(Balland, 2022)))))))), paints an unprecedented portrait of Vladimir Putin, the most demonized political leader in the world which has succeeded at once in theRole of the Dark Vader The North Korean autocrats Kim Jong Un and Syrien Bashar al-Assad.We have exchanged at length with him and share many geopolitical observations.His testimony as a prominent protagonist of the Cold War and the period of de -evidence under the Gorbachev era make his warnings on the gravity of what is played in Ukraine precious tools which should inspire our leaders unfortunately exclusively busy recovering the'Emotion and surf the media excitement around Ukraine and the demonization of Russia instead of working for deconfliction.Especially in the current context of extreme mass disinformation and propaganda that Fedorovski deplores on both sides...
Vladimir Fedorovitch Fédorovski, Russian writer and ex-diplomat(half Ukrainian, he is there!)))))))), Trained at the Institute of State of International Relations in Moscow(Mgimo)))))))) and Affirmed Polyglot(he speaks English, FrenchAnd Arabic in addition to the Russian)))))))) began his career at the Soviet Embassy of Mauritania, before being appointed in the 1970s interpreted in the Kremlin, assistant Léonid Brejnev in his meetings with the leaders of the Arab countries, before D'Officer in 1977 at the Paris Soviet Embassy.He then worked at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a chief of staff to Minister Vladimir Petrovski(who writes the speeches of Léonid Brejnev and Minister Andreï Gromyko)))))))), and meet Alexandre Iakovlev, future inspiration for Perestroika.Partisan of Gorbachev, he became diplomatic advisor during the Glasnost and was spokesperson for the Movement of Democratic Reforms during the Moscow putsch of August 1991, opposing the "hard" line of the Communist Party.Having become a writer, he taught in HEC de Paris in 1992, and was therefore decorated with the title of officer of arts and letters and then obtained French nationality in 1995.His first novel, the two sisters((1997, Lattès)))))))), was followed by a romantic series of Russian history in three volumes("The novel by Saint Petersburg", "The novel by Moscow", and "TheNovel by unusual Russia ", 2003-2004.He also directs the collection "The Roman of Magic Places" of Editions du Rocher and is honorary president of the French Federation of Book Falms.Member of the Society of Authors of Normandy, he is also a historic advisor to the Caen Memorial for the Cold War period, and was distinguished from several literary prizes including the History Prize André Castelot in 2006 and the Prix des Romancières 2004.
Crise Etats-Unis-Russie autour de l'Ukraine: et si l’Otan était le vrai responsable de l'escalade ?Russian Author most read in France, Fédorovski admits to us immediately that his book, Putin and Ukraine, which develops the points addressed in this interview, was completed in the request of the publisher when VladimirPutin officially recognized the independence of Donbass and launched, on February 24, 2022, the "special operation" in Ukraine.A rich education interview that will shed light on the French-speaking public over 30 years of growing cold neo-war and which speaks volumes about the strategic stupidity of Western leaders.Because these have both succeeded, by the exclusion of Russia and by its encirclement by NATO, to awaken the worst anti-Western and neo-imperialist trends to the Kremlin, then to throw Russia from Putin,Yet initially favorable to the alliance with the West;In the arms of the real formidable enemy of the United States in the future that is China, also an inevitable future enemy of Russia itself.A loser-losing game in the long term for the West and Russia in the long term.For our illustrious Russian diplomat, the West could have associated Russia in the West more closely when there was still time(until 2004)))))))) as part of a redesign of European collective security which should have passed through aIntegration of Russia into the alliance(then mentioned by Putin)))))))) or even by a NATO self -tuning, which should have logically, in the name of the principle of elementary reciprocity, be symmetrical to the abolition of the Warsaw Pact then could have ledIn a balanced strategic world on its replacement by a new Russian-Western collective security architecture in the face of radical Islamism and China.The result of the exclusion of Russia - treated since 1991 as a "loser" of the Cold War as deplored Fedorovski;its encirclement by NATO;The use of Georgia and Ukraine(its "close foreigners")))))))) as rams to reduce the strategic depth of Russia and as a springboard to cause "color revolutions" intended to overthrow pro-Russian diets and, toterm, the power of the Kremlin, led to the current Global West/Russia shock.In short, the exact opposite of who should have been sought from a perspective of strategic anticipation.
Greg Yudin : "Voilà où Poutine veut vraiment mener la Russie et il est temps de s’en aviser"To my question on the "profile" of Vladimir Putin, Fedorovski reminds us that the "first key to understanding" of his personality is his determining childhood in Saint Petersburg, when, without parents, he was delivered to the street and "educated"To real life by delinquents who taught him an elementary survival rule specific to the laws of the street: "Attack the first before being attacked and never retreat".Hence the importance of not underestimating the "relentless determination of the Russian president".The ex-ambassador continues his reasoning by affirming that psychiatric analyzes specific to Western media are unreasonable because Putin is a cold and not impulsive being, in reality "more psychorigid than paranoid", and "certainly not mad".The second key to understanding the character would be high -level sport that Putin has never stopped practicing, up to today, at least 1:30 am minimum per day: "With the high practice of judo andMartial arts In general, Putin learned a major rule according to which "we must have already started to move and started to drop the opponent before the latter tried to move first", in addition "to use the force ofthe other(...)))))))).This does not also prevent Putin from applying the failure strategy, a game in which he excels ".The "third key" is "the past of the Russian president who has never stopped using the spying methods learned to the KGB to not only consolidate his personal power but also to direct the State and theadministration, this always with the study and construction of power relationships as a common thread ".
Le drame de l'Ukraine, la dérive irrédentiste de Vladimir Poutine... Risque de IIIème guerre mondiale ?A Ukrainian-Russian war and a predictable Russian-West shock and that the West could have avoided by considering the security concerns of a country that became exsangue in 1990
Regarding the outbreak of the current crisis opposing Russia and the West against the backdrop of an interstate war in Ukraine, Fedorovski deplores a clear "evolution of the Russian public in his perception of the West, strongly degraded for years, while the Russian peopledreamed of the West and Europe after the Cold War in the 1990s ".For him, this "rupture between Russian population and the West is not only major and regrettable in addition to having been wanted by the West which did nothing to avoid it, but it risks being final".This major break with still unknown consequences would be largely due to the fact that "after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Westerners claimed to have" won 'the Cold War.This erroneous analysis perceived as a humiliation by the Russians and their successive leaders who gnawed their brakes before the Putin bear hits the table after 20 years of patience.Hearing these manifestations of arrogance and contempt for Russia was a trauma for the Russian people and the Kremlin, because Russia has freed itself from Sovietism.This erroneous analysis of the so-called 'American-Western victory "on the USSR has spoiled an extraordinary chance of achieving lasting peace for everyone and in particular for the old continent".Our diplomat deplores that the United States preferred to a logic of mutual respect and taking into consideration of Russian strategic concerns, a logic of cold neo-war and encirclement: "We wanted to take advantage of the weakness and momentary chaos observedIn the 1990s in Russia to repel and isolate this country in its stronghold and its steppes by considering it as a persistent enemy, when we could have associated it as a real partner.Alas, Westerners preferred to take advantage of its weakness to unilaterally extend NATO to the detriment of its nearby stranger ".We then mention to our interlocutor the promise not held - made in 1991 by the former Secretary of State for American Foreign Affairs, James Backer - never to extend NATO to the detriment of Russian interests to the east: "Iwas physically present there, he reminds us, I was then close to Edouard Chevardnadze, the former Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, with whom I even founded a Liberal Party.Even if successive American leaders have denied this commitment, because he has never led to a ratified official agreement, I attest that James Baker has taken well -on behalf of the United States -the solemn bign that NATO does not'would not move an inch to the east'.Alas, the former American president Bill Clinton denied that, like his successors, saying that such oral or written commitment had never existed.Now we know that he lied, like Western leaders and NATO officials with him, and I want the official documents of the time and archives exhumed in early March 2022 by the serious German newspaper Der Spiegel andConfirmed by British journals and which attest to an agreement transcribed in writing ".
Les dessous de la guerre en Ukraine... et du conflit Etats-Unis-Russie dont elle est le théâtreFor our part, we have never ceased to write it since the 2000s and this observation is at the heart of our work the dangerous globalization, co-written with Jacques Soppelsa, which announced a serious Russia-West shock and a war in UkraineBecause of the unreasonable NATO extension to the east since 1999, the date of the Kosovo War waged by the United States and NATO against pro-Russian Serbia and sovereign Yugoslavia then dismantled. Fédorovski confirme ce bilan et il déplore qu'à cause de la promesse non tenue de James Baker(et d'autres comme Helmut Kohl ou George Bush Père)))))))), trahison lourde de conséquence pour les décennies suivantes, et en réaction à l'humiliation d'une Russie post-soviétique traitée en "vaincue" de la Guerre froide, "l'opinion publique russe a évolué de 90 % de pro-occidentaux en 1990 à tout juste 10 % aujourd’hui!(...)))))))).He also reminds us that at the time, Western support for the Russian President pro-Western Boris Yeltsin, certainly hero of the dismantling of the USSR during the attempted military coup of Soviet generals in 1989, was very badly perceivedBy the Russian people who associated the reign of Yeltsine with chaos or a capitalist jungle and with great impoverishment: "The former Russian president also made the error of saying, the day of the end of the ex-HeS, that we were going to "make billionaires his friends and all the people of the nomenclature, and that is when 3 % of the population took control of 100 % of wealth.Yeltsin was wrong.For example, a former Minister of Energy became billionaire and the Russians had to undergo during this post-Soviet chaotic transition and this oligarchic liberalization 2500 % of inflation.50% of Russians not prepared for this anarcho-economic chaos fell under the poverty line, while $ 120 billion passed at the West in Swiss accounts or elsewhere ".At the same time, reminds us of the diplomat, the American leaders made fun of Russia "country of poor", humiliated him, while receiving in their banks the billions of the Yeltsinian oligarchs..."The Russians gnawed their brakes and they have since retorted a civilization is not just a GDP, but also the energy, the space, the territory, the culture, etc..The West publicly despised the Russians who acquired the conviction that Western liberal-capitalist democracy was an accomplice of the oligarchy thieves who shared the industrial remains of the USSR and the natural wealth of the country.The Russians then estimated that the West did not only want to kill Soviet communism but Russia itself ", hence the subsequent success of Putin who gave them pride and who cropped the Oligarchs, especially the most-Américans and westernized.After these years of humiliation, Vladimir Putin "has become the most popular man in all the history of Russia from Pierre the Great and even more than him, because he resisted the West".
Le chaos géopolitique mondial qui vient... « Sommes-nous arrivés à la fin de l’histoire ? », le nouveau livre de Roland LombardiTo our question of whether Westerners go about presenting a paranoid, isolated and autistic, antistered, anti-Western and Soviet poutine by nature and nostalgia, Fedorovski replies that "this is false: there are in fact several clans within powerRussian complex, most of which "absolutely not nostalgic for the USSR, a tendency to which Putin himself belonged when he made illusions on a West which he believed then that Russia was going to be part of the hard-Occidental.Putin really believed, although ancient spy of the ex-Soviet KGB, in a complementarity of Western-Russia ".This is also easy to verify and is not a simple opinion, since after his career as a Soviet spy, like so many others, Putin has become a liberal, especially when he worked at the town hall of Saint PetersburgUnder the sponsorship of Boris Yeltsine and the mayor Anatoli Sobtchak, then leader of the "clan of the pro-Western liberals".But "he later changed in reaction to the manifest refusal of the West, NATO and the United States to give a place to Russia and to persist in seeing it as a defeated enemy", deplores our diplomat.My colleagues Kissinger and Védrine also know it, also said it: the major Western error was to neglect the interests of Russia, by persisting in favoring the hostile strategy of "refoulement of this country" seenLike the continuity of the former USSR. George Kennan, le grand stratège de la guerre froide concepteur du containment(endiguement)))))))) de l'URSS, m'a dit un jour que la pire erreur de l'Occident a été de suivre la politique russophobe radicale de John Fuster Dulles fondée sur le refoulement(Roll back)))))))) non pas de l'URSS communiste, mais de la Russie elle-même en tant que nation.The whole problem is there".This geo-civilizational contempt was coupled, according to our eye-toe interlocutor, of an increasing military hostility seen as a major existential threat to Moscow: "When the West/NATO and the United States installed on the Polish border- So at the borders of Russia - rockets 5 minutes of scope of Moscow, it is a hostile military act.The thing is even more serious today if we keep in mind that no agreement of conventional and nuclear disarmament is still in force, neither salt, nor start, nor the inf.The situation of antagonism and strategic lethality is therefore much worse and more serious than during the black hours of the Cold War...No more global security agreement is in force, it is urgent to dialogue, to redo them to live, in order to ensure peace and survival of humanity ".
After this true alarm cry launched by an authentic peace protagonist who participated in the post-Soviet democratic transition, Fedorovski answers our question on the role of Ukrainian nationalists in the climbing towards the war as part of the strategyAmerican to encirclement from Russia Putinian of the 2000s: "The Ukrainians have changed their army for a few years to the point of being able, thanks to the enormous American, British, Canadian, Polish support, therefore NATO, to strike the Donbass and Crimea against the Russian army. Et Poutine a anticipé le fait que l'armée ukrainienne allait être capable de façon imminente de(re))))))))prendre Donbass en trois jours".Putin, faithful to her delinquent childhood doctrine to "strike before being attacked", had to act and took all Ukraine rather than the Donbass alone. On peut et doit le déplorer, bien sûr, mais notre illustre diplomate rappelle que sur la question ultra-sensible(en politique intérieure)))))))) du Donbass et de la Crimée, Poutine n'est pas le plus radical: depuis 2014, les tendances ultra-nationalistes et néostaliniennes en Russie ont déploré qu'il ne prenne pas le Donbass plus tôt et ne frappe pas l'armée ukrainienne dès 2014.Many judge, especially among the soldiers who influence him more and more, that he did not act early enough and criticize him in Petto for having let Ukraine go Russian fold.It is true that in 2014, not only could the Russian army take Kiev more easily, but the Russian troops would then been well "better" welcomed in the South by Russian -speaking Ukrainians than years later after being "worked" byWestern Eldorado propaganda.The Ukrainian question is all the more delicate for Putin "that he actually plays his political future: the military criticizes him for not having taken the Donbass earlier.Since 2014, the time and mentalities that have evolved quickly with the media and social networks have played against Putin and Russia.The Ukrainian population has quickly changed, including in the Russian-speaking region, and Putin and his entourage underestimated the ability of Western Western and Ukrainian nationalists to win the hearts of many Ukrainian Russian-speaking people who have become anti-Kremlin to their cause.The example of the Industrial Russian-speaking city and ex-Soviet symbolic of Kharkov illustrates, by its surprising resistance, this phenomenon ".
The diet changes, or the real political goal of the United States against Putin through the Ukrainian quagmire?
Was the goal of the Americans ultimately to overthrow Vladimir Putin by the NATO extension trap intended to push the Kremlin to error in Ukraine in the perspective of a stagnation causing a destabilization of power to powerMoscow?Our ambassador is not far from thinking.As for Western sanctions, he believes that they "are partly an illusion, because even if the Russian population loses half of its purchasing power because of these sanctions, this will remain a standard of living ten times higher than that of'Before the arrival of Putin in power, and the Russians are very terminating.However, what could more change the situation, compared to the 70 % of Russians favorable to Putin's action, would be the number of Russian deaths in Ukraine, whose number will eventually know ".Our interlocutor notes, however, that "strong signs indicate that an evolution has been actually in progress for some days in favor of a negotiated solution, therefore of an end to war".
In the case of the success of the Statesunian strategy of "revs changes", that many Western or naive pandemocratic hawks hope for their wishes by focusing on access to the power of the "liberal" navalny "after a fall in poutine disavowed by the people andThe army, Fédorovski recalls that it is necessary to remain very careful, because "the most plausible alternative to M.Putin, they are not the Liberal Democrats, but the Neostalinians...I do not believe a plausible a palace revolution, and the Neostalinians who will prevent any scenario of regime changes to the western opting on the contrary in favor of the continuity of the recent action of Putin which has become anti-Western, namely the creation of twoBlocs opposed as under the Cold War, a globalized-Islamized West, and, on the other, a nationalist anti-West Anti-Window Bloc.(...)))))))).This evolution-involution is comparable to that of Pierre le Grand, but in the opposite direction, no longer a Westernization of Russia but its Asianization-Desoccidénerization ".
The omnipresence of propaganda and disinformation on both sides...
For the Russian French -speaking diplomat, the "great danger is that on both sides, people believe in their propaganda, we risk seeing the Neostalinians arriving in power quickly after the Putin era which will arrive sooner or later, and development in thisMeaning that goes through an economy of mobilization, nationalizations and a shock of values with the West then a rapprochement with China, will be an era well worse than that of Putin which was despite what a capitalist is said to be, therefore a"Westernizable".Alas, the Neo Stalinists who are increasingly surrounding him among the soldiers have already won the battle and they have recently won the elections ".
Knowing that all the media in Western countries have mentioned in recent months the personality of the controversial and very radical of Alexander Douguine, the Russian Imperialist Ideologist theoretical of "Eurasism", I ask our ambassador if it is true that thisthinker blows the ears of Putin, which I know to be false or very exaggerated, even if he is known in Russia, Fedorovski confirms that "it is a radical ideologist that the West likes to put forwardTo defray the chronicle, while no one speaks in the West, where nothing of Russia is known, other much more influential and anti-Western ideologues like Platochsky, the neostalinian leader, doctor of science, diplomat, who developsAn "alternative" strategic current which goes as far as Douguine.I repeat, and it is not good news, that those who have won the elections will clearly adhere to the Chinese political model.Anti-Western ideologists like Spezine or Platochsky, much more influential than Douguine, represent a real radical trend in Russia, and they are favoring the ex-KGB executives who reproached Putin for having done nothing before in 2014"".
In conclusion, Fedorovski answers our question on the risk of bogging up of Russian troops in kyiv and therefore on the scenario dear to Westerners of "Afghan syndrome".He replied that for weeks, we have felt a real inflection in war goals on both sides, therefore towards a possible exit track the conflictuality or significant deconfliction: "Despite the fact that his military operation lasted moreFrom time to time than expected and that it turns out to be more difficult than it believed, given the resistance of the Ukrainians, Putin can declare himself victorious as soon as he has obtained a status of neutrality from Ukraine.Moreover, the optics of a direct bilateral meeting Putin-Zelenski as part of a summit in Jerusalem, or in Turkey under the auspices of Bennet or Erdogan, or in other configurations, is increasingly realisticand envisaged.And it will never be recalled that this war would be impossible if we had previously given insurance to Russia concerning a non-extension of NATO to the east and in particular to Ukraine and Georgia.In the event that we cannot learn from this last teaching, we will all be able to lose, "continues our friend.And concerning the sanctions, he alerts "the terrible economic crisis which will strike Europe if there are not quick solutions of decoration and if exit doors are not granted to Moscow in addition to a ceasefireLe-Feu in Ukraine, because it must be understood that Putin plays his political future and his posthumous posterity with this affair.It is therefore urgent to calm hysteria so that it is not pushed like a bear or a boar stuck to become convulsive and even more dangerous, because it will go to the end and deny it is irresponsible ".
Regarding China, Fedorovski fears that if the West continues to push the Russians into the hands of the Chinese: "The latter will end up dominating the Russians in the long term, and they will take advantage of the many technological domains where the Russians remain very efficient.The idea of some Westerners to isolate Russia by getting along between Chinese and Americans is also a utopia because what has been obtained and feared Kissinger and Kennan is on the contrary, by the extension ofNATO to the east and the rejection of Russia, a Sino-Russian agreement against the United States, NATO and the United States ".A ball in the foot?A "auto-gol", as the Italians say?The future in the medium term or perhaps even nearly say it...
Vladimir Fédorovski publishes "Putin and Ukraine, the hidden faces" by Balland editions.
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