"We are building another iron curtain"
Through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Stéphane Garelli, professor emeritus at the University of Lausanne and the Institute of Management IMD, perceives the emergence of two blocks which everything opposes and whose confrontation will shake up the world economic order.According to him, Switzerland should not suffer too much.
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- In "Forum", on RTS, you estimated that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict sounded the death knell for "low cost globalization" started about thirty years ago. Qu’entendez-vous par mondialisation ou globalisation low cost et qu’est-ce qui vous pousse à tirer cette conclusion?
- Stéphane Garelli: On peut résumer la globalisation en trois phases.The first, which I call low cost, aimed to make products as quickly as possible, the cheaper possible.This is what we have known until the COVID crisis.With the health crisis, we approached another chapter, characterized by the decoupling of economies and the duplication of technologies, the objective of which was to be less dependent on others and to have more security in supplies.Security having a price, we forget the low cost, it becomes much more expensive.The third phase, in which we have entered since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, is that of a fractured globalization, where we see two parallel worlds emerge.On the one hand, the West, bringing together the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia and Latin America, and on the other, countries like Russia, theIndia, China, South Africa, who want to live according to their own political, economic and social system.We have received this trend for a few years, but the conflict has accelerated this process which places our companies operating abroad - we see it with the example of Nestlé - in a very delicate situation.
>> Lire aussi: Analyse géostratégique et historique du conflit
- Des entreprises entre deux feux, vous voulez dire?
- Exactement.Multinationals are exposed to reputation risks in their own country if their ethics are deemed insufficient while, in the countries where they operate, they are told: "Listen, we are starting to be tired of the moralizing attitude of your country D'Origin, if you don't like it, go see elsewhere."It is faced with this dilemma that they meet.When you speak informally with their officials, they are aware that this situation is not tenable and that it requires them to review their investments and their presence abroad.
- For the anecdote, Larry Fink, the founder and boss of Blackrock, the largest asset management and investment company in the world, did the same announcement as you but a few hours later. Vous a-t-il plagié?
- J’aime croire que tous les matins, quand il se lève, M.Fink seeks to know what Garelli said the day before, but I doubt it (laughs).
- Plus sérieusement, la guerre incite les pays formant le BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud) à resserrer leurs liens afin de pouvoir se passer le plus possible de l’Occident…
- Oui.Clearly, the countries which refrain from voting against Russia to the United Nations.To which we can add Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.We could assimilate this to a new iron curtain.With the significant difference that these countries, unlike those formerly living behind the iron curtain, are all rich not only financially, but also in raw materials, in human skills, even in technologies, like China.Which makes the situation very different.
>> Lire aussi: La Russie attaque et le monde vacille
- Un bloc qui rassemble plus de 4 milliards de personnes, soit plus de la moitié de la population mondiale…
- C’est vrai.But don't forget that it represents only a third of world GDP, against two thirds for the West.That said, these countries are really irritated by our moralizing attitude, which they perceive as an interference.Their message and reaction must therefore be taken very seriously.It is to this brutal change that our governments and our companies face.
- About moral behavior, many countries - including Switzerland elsewhere - sanctioning Russia continue to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia, leader of the coalition leading war in Yemen. Le souci réputationnel serait-il à géométrie variable?
- Vous pouvez même aller plus loin.It is also said to Qatar that it is unacceptable to build football stadiums with cheap labor and, the next day, we send our ministers to doha negotiating gas agreements.This double game of governments, forced to ensure the interest of their nation, is common.But companies do not have this room for maneuver.Imagine the complexity of managing a list of almost 1000 personalities overnight, for example oligarchs, whose activities must be frozen.Especially since the system is not waterproof.
- C’est-à-dire?
- Au cours du mois écoulé, l’Inde a par exemple quadruplé ses importations de pétrole russe, acquis avec 30% de rabais, avant de les revendre sur les marchés internationaux.The situation is very complicated for everyone.
- Joe Biden estime que la Chine saura voir son intérêt économique et ne commettra pas l’erreur de snober l’Occident au profit de la Russie…
- Les Chinois sont très réalistes, en effet.And we must not forget that their relations with Russia have been very tense for decades.In truth, they do not love each other and the Russians have a blue fear that China imposes its influence on Siberia, whose basement conceals all the natural resources it needs.In my opinion, China will buy Western companies that leave Russia or take their place.Little by little, she will be much more present than so far.
- Ce qui ne veut pas dire qu’elle snobera l’Occident?
- Non.I think it is not in her interest, even if she will try more and more to move away from it.Historically, China likes to refocus on itself and forget the rest of the world from time to time.There is in Chinese mentality this tendency to isolate oneself, to live far from others.
- Where you see a new world economic order to set up, others on the contrary see the end of the reign of Vladimir Putin and a switch to Russian power in favor of the West. Qui a raison?
- Je ne crois pas à ce scénario pour le moment.The end of Putin's reign is not for tomorrow and, even if he fell, nothing guarantees that his successor would be different.What you need to know is that Russia is economically relatively small.Its natural resources are certainly enormous, but practically everything that its energy sales reports to Europe feeds the military budget.
- On dit que l’économie russe a déjà commencé à s’effondrer à cause des sanctions…
- C’est le cas.According to the American bank JPMorgan, the country will already be assigned by a 20% recession in the first quarter.Throughout the year, it should be at least 10%.And the people already feel the effects, via shortages even affecting food.People start to ask questions because these problems you can't hide them.
- Les deux blocs dont vous parlez ne sont-ils pas en train de jouer au jeu dangereux de qui s’effondrera le premier?
- Les enjeux vont bien au-delà d’un simple jeu.Economic disruptions are enormous and do not only concern both blocks.Many other countries are concerned, in particular by the supply of wheat and cereals, such as Egypt, Turkey or Lebanon.A rupture of the chain can cause significant disorders.It is this contagion that the West tries to avoid.Solving the economic problems posed by Russia would cost very expensive but would not be insurmountable.The real danger is this domino effect that threatens.
>> Lire aussi: Simonetta Sommaruga: «J’ai beaucoup insisté pour que les sanctions soient prises»
- L’Europe, beaucoup plus dépendante de la Russie que les Etats-Unis sur le plan énergétique, ne risque-t-elle pas d’être pénalisée en s’alignant sur les sanctions américaines?
- Pour l’Europe, la priorité est autant politique et géopolitique qu’économique.So she has no choice but to align herself.With Trump, Europe has had a blue fear that the United States withdraws from NATO and that they are out of interest.What would have made our continent a kind of soft belly, an area where countries never agree with each other, in short, a target relatively easy to reach as, obviously, should believe Vladimir Putin.With the outbreak of war, it was therefore important, even capital for her to show a common front with the United States, which allows her to replace the international chessboard.
- Et la Suisse a-t-elle raison de suivre ce mouvement?
- Je ne sais pas si elle a raison, mais le dernier sondage indique que deux tiers de la population y est favorable.In fact, we couldn't do otherwise.From a moral point of view, it would have been unacceptable and we would have been punished.We have seen it with taxation and dissemination funds: as soon as we are put in strong political pressure, we have no other choice than objection.So, it's true, the Russian oligarchs leave Switzerland to go to Dubai, Turkey or elsewhere.I don't see a significant economic risk.The risk that short in Russia is not different from that of Danone or other multinationals.For companies like Nestlé, it is a choice that is both economic and more and more political.
- Quelles seront les conséquences de cette crise, qui rebat singulièrement les cartes du monde à vos yeux?
- Du point de vue de la Russie, tant que Poutine restera au pouvoir, son isolement se poursuivra et le pays deviendra un Etat voyou comme la Corée du Nord ou la Syrie, pour le plus grand malheur des Russes eux-mêmes.The rest will depend a lot on the role that countries like China or India will play.Will they become commercial agents from Russia or not?We will know very quickly ...
>> Lire aussi: Portrait de Vladimir «Napoleonovitch» Poutine
Par Christian Rappaz publié le 30 mars 2022 - 08:37
