For having acquired Russian S-400 “Triumph” air defense systems obviously incompatible with those of NATO, Turkey was excluded by the Trump administration from the F-35 combat aircraft program, in connection with which she had ordered a hundred copies.
Since then, the Turkish government has been looking for solutions to modernize its combat aviation, which is mainly based on old-generation F-16 C/Ds as well as F-4E Phantom IIs. In recent months, Ankara has thus discussed the possible purchase of Su-57 "Felon" or Su-35 "Flanker-E" from Russia... and has said that it is considering possible cooperation with the Russian aeronautical industry to carry out its TF-X next-generation combat aircraft program.
Then, recently, Turkey expressed its wish to acquire 40 copies of the latest version of the F-16, called "Viper", as well as 80 kits to modernize part of the old generation F-16 implemented by its air forces.
However, such an order will have to obtain the approval of the United States Congress... And the latter is not necessarily in the best of dispositions towards Ankara, in particular because of the tensions in the Eastern of its role in Syria, Libya as well as in the last Nagorno-Karabakh war, having opposed Azerbaijan and Armenia, in October 2020. In addition, the purchase of the S-400 remains a bone of contention.
However, Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine may be a game-changer for Ankara, which, as a reminder, is close to Kiev [to the point of supplying it with Bayraktar TB-2 drones ] while being dependent on Moscow for its energy and grain supplies. In addition, Turkey had the opportunity to recall that it is a "strategic" member for NATO due to its ability to block the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, thus limiting the movements of Russian warships. But it is not certain that this is likely to encourage the purchase of American F-16s... or even their reintegration into the F-35 program.
With the acquisition of Russian fighter jets now ruled out [as well as prospects for cooperation on the TF-X], Ankara's options are limited. If the relations between France and Turkey, very old because they were established during the reign of François I, had not deteriorated so much, perhaps the Rafale could have satisfied the Turkish air forces...
But according to a Turkish official approached by Defense News, the most serious option would be the Eurofighter Typhoon, produced by a consortium bringing together BAE Systems, Airbus and Leonardo.
And the United Kingdom, which has been able to maintain good relations with Turkey despite the tensions of recent months, would be on the move. And all the more so since British manufacturers are involved in the TF-X program, as BAE Systems recalled, via Twitter, on February 15.
We work with Turkish Aerospace to bring know-how and engineering expertise to the TF-X programme. https://t.co/ctZy3T4lwt
—BAE Systems Air (@BAESystemsAir) February 15, 2022
Furthermore, on March 5, Ismail Demir, the chairman of Turkey's defense industry, said that Ankara would negotiate a deal with Rolls-Royce over the engine of the TF-X. By the time Turkish industry joins the British Tempest program afterwards…
“We had some problems [with Rolls-Royce] before. These have been resolved. I think we are ready to work together. We hope that further discussions with UK government and industry officials this year will increase the chances of securing a final deal,” Demir said.
Anyway, the Turkish defense official interviewed by Defense News confirmed that the Typhoon may be an “option”, with the prospect of an order for around 80 aircraft. “These planes can even be assembled in Turkey, although they have a higher price then,” he said.
