Since February 24, Russian and Ukrainian troops have faced each other in a war determining for the future of Ukraine and Europe.(Photo: Getty Images)
Geopolitical analysis.The cold post-war period is over.The brutal invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army opens a new chapter in the history of Europe, with an "iron curtain" which will once again divide the old continent in less than a century, as duringThe Cold War (1945-1989).
Also, political leaders, business leaders and investors who hope for a medium term crisis will have to be disillusioned.We will enter a great period of political uncertainty in the very long term, because the economic sanctions of Western countries will not modify the strategy of Russia by Vladimir Putin.
Even a possible exclusion from Russia from the SWIFT network-an essential international interbank network to transfer capital or do currency operations-would probably not change much, at least in the short term.
The attack on Ukraine probably aims to install a prorussian regime in kyiv (or even downright to annex the country to Russia, or at least a good part) so that the Ukrainian state remains definitively in the Moscow area of influence and that he never adheres to the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO).
The chief of the Kremlin also takes advantage of eliminating a democracy - certainly imperfect - at the doors of an authoritarian Russia, which fears the influence of this long -term "bad example" for the survival of his regime.
This war will cause great volatility in world energy prices, starting with natural gas, especially in Europe.
Until a week ago, natural gas prices on the Ice Futures Europe stock exchange had jumped 400% over the past year.And if we take into account the last week, we are talking about an increase of 800%, underlines Interview Jules Boudreau, economist, team of multi-active strategies, at Placements Mackenzie.
The price of oil will remain so high in the medium term, according to this specialist, who estimates that a barrel of oil at US $ 100 is a floor price for the next six months.
The invasion of Ukraine will also disrupt global supply chains (already unstable due to the pandemic), from energy to agriculture, including high technologies, aviation and automobile, according to an analysis of the Kearney consultant firm.
Volkswagen will for example stop production in two factories in Germany for lack of parts made in Ukraine.
Legend has it that it was Winston Churchill who popularized the expression iron curtain, during a speech delivered in March 1946, in the United States, when a new geopolitical order was set up in Europe of the after-war.
The former British Prime Minister had seen right.
Between 1945 and 1989, a fortified border gradually separated the democratic countries (turned towards the United States) from communist countries (turned towards the former Soviet Union), from Finland to Greece via the 'Germany - The country and Berlin were divided in two.
Thus, the Western and Eastern Bloc Bloc have stood up for almost 50 years, with acute crises, as in the Printemps de Prague, in 1968, in Czechoslovakia (a satellite country of the ex-Soviet Union).
This iron curtain fell to the turns of the 1990s, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and communism in Europe, which culminated with the dislocation of the Soviet Union - "the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century", according to VladimirCheese fries.
Admittedly, it would be very surprising to see fortified boundaries reappear between Russia and the countries sharing its border.
But let's not be mistaken: if NATO does not intend to intervene directly in Ukraine to help the country to resist the Russian invasion (we will however provide weapons to the Ukrainians so that they canDefending), it will concentrate more and more troops in member countries located in Eastern Europe.
NATO countries will strengthen their presence in the neighboring member countries of Russia, from Baltic countries to Romania via Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. (Card: Starty 1st, the Magnificent / CC)
We are talking about the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.
This constellation of countries (which form an arc on a map) will be a permanent high voltage home with Russia in the foreseeable future.Relations are likely to be particularly full -minded with the Baltic countries (three former Soviet republics), not to mention the fact that Estonia and Latvia are home to large Russian -speaking minorities.
In this tense climate, several NATO countries could also be the target of Russian cyber attacks, targeting their strategic infrastructure (electricity network, banking network, etc.), not to mention their industrial flagships.
And it would be a mistake to believe that Canada is safe.
The war in Ukraine is also a brutal awakening for the majority of NATO countries, which mainly bet on the United States to defend them.
Several of them will undoubtedly decide to increase their military spending over their GDP in order to increase their military power.Because, apart from France and the United Kingdom, few European countries can really project force.
However, military power is the only way to dissuade Russia from Vladimir Putin.
The United States will also have to increase its military spending because it will now have to contain two powers in Eurasia, Russia and China-the latter wishes to annex Taiwan, which she considers a rebellious province.
The Americans did it for a good part of the Cold War, so they can do it again, but this will necessarily require additional financial, human and material resources.
As for Europeans, they must keep in mind a crucial element: the presidential election in the United States in November 2024.
What will be Washington's desire to contain Russia in Eastern Europe if Donald Trump (or another republican candidate "Trumpist" and isolationist) presents himself in the White House race and won it?
Would he exercise the same leadership as current President Joe Biden?
We can seriously doubt it.
This is the reason why the result of the American presidential election of 2024 represents a major geopolitical risk, alongside the territorial inclinations of Moscow.
In the years to come, it will therefore be necessary to have steel nerves in organizations in order to manage this uncertainty, especially for those who are active in Eastern Europe.
That said, previous generations learned to live and prosper during the Cold War and the Soviet threat;We will also get there with the Russian threat.
And the first step is to realize that we have changed paradigm in Europe this week, and that a new geopolitical order is in gestation before our eyes.
With a new iron curtain.
